Prediction Market
Axiom launches with a Tiered Parimutuel system for all markets. This is a pool-based approach that does not require seed liquidity, does not allow early exits, and rewards early participants with a time multiplier. It is simple for users but technically robust, resistant to manipulation, and ideal for large-scale public prediction markets.
This is the method used at launch for every market on Axiom.
How Trading Works
When you bet on an outcome:
Your stake goes into a pool for that outcome
All outcome pools together form the total market pool
If your outcome wins, you receive a proportional share of the prize pool
If your outcome loses, your bet is added to the prize pool paid to winners
There is no early exit in the beta release of Axiom. All bets remain locked until the market resolves.
This design:
Removes MEV opportunities
Eliminates wash trading
Avoids impermanent loss
Prevents pump-and-dump manipulation
Reduces smart contract complexity
Ensures full capital efficiency
All bets always go into the prize pool.
Real-Time Odds
The implied probability for each outcome is based on its pool size relative to the total pool:
Implied Probability for Outcome X = Pool on X / Total PoolThe multiplier (if the market were to resolve right now) is:
Current Multiplier = Total Pool / Pool on XAs bets flow in, odds shift in real time.
Early Participant Time Bonus
Axiom uses a time-weighted share system that rewards early conviction. Early bettors receive a higher share of the final prize pool.
The time bonus decays linearly from market open to market close:
Time Bonus = 1.5 - (0.5 × elapsed_time / total_duration)
Weighted Shares = Bet Amount × Time BonusAt open: time bonus = 1.5x At close: time bonus = 1.0x Everything is proportional and transparent.
This prevents cold-start liquidity problems and incentivizes users to bet based on belief rather than simply waiting for more information.
Virtual Seed for Smoother Opening Odds
Each outcome begins with a small virtual seed (default: 100 USD). This seed:
Exists only for odds calculation
Is not paid out
Prevents markets from opening at 100 percent or 0 percent probability
Example:
YES seed: 100
NO seed: 100
Displayed odds at open: 50 percent / 50 percent
If the first real bet is placed on YES, the odds shift smoothly instead of jumping from 0 to 100 percent.
Multi-Outcome Support
Tiered Parimutuel markets naturally support two outcomes, three outcomes, or even dozens of outcomes. Each outcome keeps its own pool and weighted shares. The entire prize pool goes to the winning outcome.
This enables markets like:
“Who will win the 2025 US election?”
“Which crypto will finish 2025 with the highest percentage gain?”
“Which exchange will list RLUSD next?”
"Who will announce an XRP ETF next?"
What Users See in the Interface
Axiom’s UI displays:
The implied probability
The current multiplier
Your time bonus
Your weighted shares
Your minimum payout if nothing else changes
A reminder that final payout depends on the total pool at close
Example:
Betting on YES
Current implied probability: 60%
Current multiplier: 1.67x
Your time bonus: 1.35x
If you bet 100 XRP now:
• Weighted shares: 135
• Current share of YES pool: 0.19%
• Minimum payout: 167 XRP
Final payout depends on pool size at resolution.This makes Axiom visually intuitive even for users who have never used a prediction market before.
Resolution and Settlement
Once the event occurs:
A top 50 percent staker submits the first proposal
If unchallenged, the market auto-resolves
If challenged, a vote is triggered
Once resolved, the winning outcome is finalized
Winners claim their share of the prize pool minus commissions
Commissions are routed:
To Axiom Prime vaults (1–3 percent set by the market creator)
To the development team (1 percent fixed)
To the market creator if the market was clean (0.15 percent bonus)
Traders claim their winnings in the settlement asset (XRP at launch, RLUSD or other stablecoins when enabled).
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